The forthcoming December re - run of the Serbian presidential elections is examined by Zoran B. Nikolic in the November 1, 1997 issue of Belgrade weekly "Vreme".Even the most main of all main boards - The Main Board of the SPS party, has shown in the past week a high level of autonomy in taking of decisions, voting unanimously (at the proposal of Slobodan Milosevic) on two important things. First: at the forthcoming elections the SPS - JUL - Nova Demokratija coalition will not put forth as its candidate Zoran Lilic, but Milan Milutinovic, Yugoslav foreign minister.
It is said that Lilic simply rejected to be shamed again, making as an excuse the obstruction posed to him by Gorica Gajevic, Milomir Minic, and Dragoljub Milanovic. The second decision of the Main Board of the SPS is that this party will cover 86 of the mandates in the Republican Parliament, JUL 19, and Nova Demokratija 5 mandates. So, the person that finds himself in the position of Serbian president at the time when the new Serbian government is being formed, whoever that is, will not have to talk about this with Vojislav Seselj, whose Radical party has ?only? 82 mandates, since the president is obliged only to listen to the representative of the strongest party.
It turned out that nobody was satisfied with this fatherly and wise division of the electoral spoils. It is clear to Socialists that JUL is a parasite on their backs, the named parasite is stubborn in getting 23 mandates for itself, while Dusan Mihajlovic, the president of the third coalition partner, resigned in protest.
The Socialists do not care anymore. Whether they decide to make a coalition with the Radicals or with the SPO, they can achieve that with this number of seats, without JUL or ND. A big coalition that would include both Draskovic and Seselj is not very probable, because a possible alliance of the two could outvote the Socialists. So the question is - Seselj or Draskovic ? The alliance with the former would take the Socialists (and all of us along with them) into dark realms of conflicts with everybody. As a result of this, the Socialists would become weaker every day, and the Radicals stronger.
If the ruling party chooses Draskovic as the new coalition partner it would mean that the current tightening of the situation on all fronts is just a final bargaining before the inevitable concessions. But, as things stand now, it is a question how much would this arrangement be stable. Within the SPO they have realized so far that they need new voters if Draskovic is to move into the presidential chair. They just don?t agree where they should look for them.
Milan Bozic, Draskovic's counsellor and factual mayor of Belgrade is of the opinion that the Winter protests only brought damage to SPO. The regime media branded the party as treasonous and non - patriotic, which is the main obstacle for Draskovic to become president. The old SPO veterans, on the other hand that with such advice, Bozic is intentionally disintegrating the party, because can only hope for the better if he convinces the voters that have previously boycotted the elections to appear at the ballot boxes.
They won't have anything with the "red gang". The same position is held by the majority of SPO officials who have gained some kind of a post in the local authority. First time in the history of SPO the membership asked itself - who if not Vuk. The glances are for the moment mostly stopping at Velimir Ilic, the mayor of Cacak, whose governship even the Socialists cannot find a fault.
If the party goes into an open alliance with Milosevic, even the position of Draskovic himself will come into question. Until the Draskovic duo lead SPO, the law that has given the Socialists the advantage, would start operating against them.
But, neither do the "non - parliamentarian" parties, as Draskovic now calls his recent partners from the "Zajedno" coalition, do not have the intention to just let him have their voters and end up at the repository of history. The spokesman of the Citizens alliance at a recent press conference dealt the journalists a fresh piece of a chewing gum, announcing that Vesna Pesic, the Party president, is at this moment in negotiations with a very known and important non - party personality, trying to persuade him to became a presidential candidate.
Who is the "white knight" of Vesna Pesic ? It can be discerned that the most serious candidates are Milan Panic and Dragoslav Avramovic. But the question arises, what could he do if he wins ? He would practically have no support of either the government or the Parliament, unless he introduces the state of emergency. Even in the spectacular case that the ND and SPO would give them their support, this would still leave the SPS the possibility for at least another 180 "figurae veneris" with JUL and the Radicals. Still, as the mentioned spokesman Goran Svilanovic says, "this would still be another defeat for Milosevic, this time in Serbia for the first time?".
Source: Belgrade weekly "Vreme" , November 1, 1997
back to index
Monitor Index | War Zone | MediaFilter