SerbiaBelgrade independent news agency "BETA" , looks at the results of the Serbian elections in the October 9, 1997, issue of its electronic weekly report.
The second round of Serbian presidential elections, a run-off between Left coalition candidate Zoran Lilic and Serbian Radical Party candidate Vojislav Seselj, has been proclaimed invalid. The Serbian electoral commission which is composed mostly of representatives from the Left coalition, announced on Oct. 8 that 48.97 percent of registered voters turned out. Because Serbian election laws prescribe a fifty percent minimum for a valid vote, the whole electoral process will have to be repeated. However, the constitution does not set a deadline for the election rerun.
Vojislav Seselj of the Radical party received 1,733,859 votes (49.10 percent). The candidate of the Left coalition, made up of the Socialist Party of Serbia, Yugoslav United Left, and New Democracy, received 1,691,354 votes (47.9 percent).
This is the first time since the first multi-party elections were held in Serbia that the ruling Left was forced to admit that its candidate received less votes that his opponent. It certainly is the heaviest political defeat suffered up till now by the political bloc lead by Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic.
The second round run-off definitely confirmed that the ruling coalition no longer has enough political support in the country. A lack of support was also evident in the Sep. 21 legislative elections, after which the Left was left with less seats than last time. The Left had 123 seats in the last sitting of the Serbian legislature, but this time won only 110 seats in the 250-seat legislative body.
At this time, the date of the presidential elections rerun is still uncertain. The repeat is supposed to be scheduled by the new sitting of the legislature, which has not yet been formed. The legislature cannot sit until voting is repeated at ten polling stations in four voting districts where irregularities were discovered. The date of this reiteration is also unknown. The ruling leftist coalition has many reasons to worry and to be weary of new presidential elections. Sources close to the bloc say Lilic is not ready to run again. In fact, the Left does not possess a candidate who has realistic chances of defeating Seselj.
Moreover, back during the legislative elections, serious rifts became apparent in the Left. A nationalist faction of the Socialist party is dissatisfied with the growing influence of the Yugoslav Left in the coalition. This faction, according to sources close to the Socialists, questions the popularity of the Yugoslav Left among voters and believes its officials' increased influence is weakening the party.
Also, the same sources say they were "extremely surprised" by Milosevic's conduct during the legislative and presidential elections. "He was the imprimatur, but addressed the public only twice. During the previous elections he lead the complete campaign, but now left everything to Gorica Gajevic (Socialist party general secretary) and Dragan Tomic (legislature speaker)," a Socialist party member who requested anonymity said.
An additional burden to relations between the Socialists and Yugoslav United Left is the upcoming distribution of the coalition's seats in the Serbian legislature. According to BETA's sources, the United Left has demanded forty of the coalition's 110 seats. The Socialist cannot accept such a defeat even though it would be less obvious to the wider public.
Namely, if Jul was to get 35-40 of the 110 seats, and the New Democracy given enough seats to allow the party to form a caucus, the Socialist Party of Serbia would no longer be the largest party in the legislature, because Seselj's Radicals alone have 82 seats. According to the legislature's rules of conduct, the minimum number of seats necessary for the formation of a caucus is 5, but according to sources in the New Democracy, the party wants 10.
The bargaining about the distribution of seats that is currently taking place in the Left bloc could also affect the date of the legislature's first session, and indirectly, when new presidential elections will be held.
Vojislav Seselj and his Radicals took advantage of the rift inside of Zajedno, the largest opposition coalition, and took over a large part of its electorate, but also some of the voters that were leaving the Socialist Party of Serbia. The Radicals have tried as hard as possible to make themselves known through local media during the pre - election campaign, thereby compensating for the extra air time the Socialists had on the state-run TV.
During the past several years, the Serbian regime consciously allowed the Radicals' power to grow, which it used, and is still using to counter the influence of the parties from the democratic opposition bloc. The regime considered parties from this bloc its major political opponents, leaving room for the Radicals to attack them continuously. This radicalized the electorate and paved the way for political forces that support "quick and simple" solutions and intolerance towards other nations and opinions.
Simultaneously, the ruling party used the "controlled growth" of the Radical party as "scarecrow" for the international community which was thus "told" that, if the Left loses power, the is a possibility for the extreme nationalism and chauvinism forwarded by the Radicals to take the reigns in Serbia again, which could have unexpected consequences in Bosnia.
During the war, the leader of the Serbian Radical Party was known as the "favorite opposition politician" of then Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic. However, Milosevic arrested him in 1993 when Radical party members in the Serbian legislature and Yugoslav parliament began getting out of control. Early legislative election in Serbia were called the same year. Afterwards, the Radicals' influence fell, but they were still needed by the regime, which found their ideology much easier to swallow than that of the democratic opposition bloc. The Radicals were never a part of the regimes list of "traitors" and "foreign servants", labels that were regularity placed on parties from the democratic bloc.
During the September elections, Seselj's Radicals made use of the fact that the electorate was, thanks to the state TV which has a large influence on voters, already accustomed to their ideas. Seselj did his best to refrain from showing nervousness, not wanting to repeat the error he made in 1993, and allow relations with the Socialists to become too hostile.
The Radicals took such a stand when it became obvious that it would be officially confirmed that the presidential run-off turnout had been insufficient, and Seselj's victory would be annulled. Back on Oct. 8 Seselj said there was a possibility the Left would annul the election, and hinted that his party would again nominate the same candidate for the repeated elections.
Aware of their growing influence, the Radicals do not want to contribute to the political crisis in any way. They believe that the Left does not have a candidate who can counter Seselj and expect their leader's influence to continue to rise. After the recent elections, it is sensible to ask whether the Socialists are capable of controlling the Radicals any longer.
The Serbian Renewal Movement left the legislative and presidential elections considerably weaker, even though the party received more seats in the legislature than ever before, and its presidential candidate Vuk Draskovic received more than 800,000 votes. The Renewal Movement called on its supporters to boycott the second round run-off, explaining that it was ludicrous to chose between communists (the Left) and fascists (the Radicals). The results of the second round show that a majority of Draskovic's voters from the first round ignored his pleas and voted for Seselj, It is estimated that several hundred voters acted in that way.
Seselj was victorious in Kragujevac, a city that was populated by the Serbian Renewal Movement's most devoted followers, and where the turnout exceeded the fifty percent mark. Local Renewal Movement officials admitted that Draskovic's former voters contributed to Seselj victory.
This was explained away as people siding against the communists." The September elections show that Draskovic can defeat neither Seselj, nor the Left's candidate. Several prominent individuals in his party from the Serbian countryside, as well as some of the rank and file, are beginning to see that Draskovic's political carrier is on a downward trajectory, and that nominating him again would only speed up his and the party's demise.
On Oct. 7, the party announced it would again nominate Draskovic in the repeat of the presidential vote. However, it left room for another candidate if the other opposition parties come to an agreement. That is a sign that political realism is finally beginning to infiltrate the party, because, immediately prior to the second round, it had refused to agree to anyone other than Draskovic being the opposition's candidate.
The Serbian Renewal Movement entered the electoral race with rhetoric about a certain victory and that Draskovic was the only real candidate of the democratic opposition in Serbia. Member and supporter thus interpreted the election results as a huge failure, and a serious separation in the party began.
In Serbian cities where the Zajedno coalition (the Serbian Renewal Movement, Democratic Party, and Civic Alliance of Serbia) is in power, the break-up of the coalition among the leaderships of its partners and in Belgrade was somberly followed. The local chapters of the coalition partners continued to cooperate despite pressure from their conflicting leaders.
In addition, the Serbian Renewal Movement, with its 45 seats in the legislature, became a very attractive prospective to the Socialists for the formation of a new Serbian government. Well-informed sources in the party said that some local chapters, and members of the leadership threatened to split the party if such a coalition is accepted. Therefore, the leadership was forced to announce on Oct. 7 that a coalition with the Socialists is not possible. Pressure from members on the leadership can only increase, and some found it hard to accept that Vuk Draskovic was the only opposition leader (barring Seselj, with whom the US. does not with any contact whatsoever) who was not received by U.S. special envoy Robert Gelbard on Oct. 6.
The Democratic Party and Civic Alliance of Serbia, which boycotted the elections, are very pleased and began announcing the formation of a new coalition which could nominate a single candidate for the next presidential elections. The Democratic Party went one step further and announced a possible merger between the two parties. For now, the name most mentioned as the opposition's possible candidate is that of former Yugoslav Premier Milan Panic. There is little hope for the Serbian Renewal Movement to become a part of this new coalition, especially since Democratic Party leader Zoran Djindjic is firmly against such a move. However, such a turn of events is possible if the Renewal Movement splits, and one faction teams up with the Democratic and Civic Alliance.
According to the current state of affairs, the next presidential elections will have two candidates besides the Left's candidate and Seselj; one from the Serbian Renewal Movement, and the other nominated by the Democratic Party, Civic Alliance and the other parties that chose to become a part of the coalition they have announced.
Source: Belgrade news agency "BETA", weekly electronic report
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